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Argan S.A. (0GN6.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - GeneralSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$992.46 - $3,053.47$2,861.55
Multi-Stage$410.26 - $449.01$429.28
Blended Fair Value$1,645.42
Current Price$65.50
Upside2,412.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.80%16.29%2.092.450.871.011.520.410.380.210.280.48
YoY Growth---14.67%182.97%-13.85%-33.86%274.37%7.29%81.13%-24.61%-42.32%3.95%
Dividend Yield--3.46%2.88%1.14%0.86%1.82%0.52%0.86%0.52%1.11%2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)385.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)267.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.0248.1428.88
Cash Retained (M)267.19267.19267.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.02-48.14-28.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)190.17219.05238.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.0825.0825.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.588.739.50
LTM Dividend per Share4.704.704.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.588.739.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.2813.4314.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$992.46$2,861.55$3,053.47
Upside / Downside1,415.21%4,268.78%4,561.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)385.12410.15436.81465.20495.44527.65543.48
Payout Ratio30.62%42.50%54.37%66.25%78.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.93174.30237.51308.19387.06474.88502.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)161.66163.20164.73
Year 2 PV (M)204.31208.20212.13
Year 3 PV (M)245.89252.95260.14
Year 4 PV (M)286.43297.44308.77
Year 5 PV (M)325.93341.68358.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,066.309,504.219,958.88
Equity Value (M)10,290.5310,767.6811,262.67
Shares Outstanding (M)25.0825.0825.08
Fair Value$410.26$429.28$449.01
Upside / Downside526.35%555.39%585.52%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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