Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1.47 - $1.93 | $1.71 |
| Multi-Stage | $4.91 - $5.45 | $5.18 |
| Blended Fair Value | $3.44 | |
| Current Price | $1.60 | |
| Upside | 115.17% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -5.12% | -6.26% | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.28 | 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 85.27% | -75.00% | 15.19% | 29.10% | 11.62% | 6.27% | 6.67% | 57.91% | -61.96% | 0.10% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.76% | 4.64% | 8.84% | 5.57% | 6.40% | 7.23% | 6.89% | 5.41% | 3.04% | 9.45% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 233.36 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 113.53 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 119.83 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 46.67 | 29.17 | 17.50 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 119.83 | 119.83 | 119.83 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -46.67 | -29.17 | -17.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 73.16 | 90.66 | 102.33 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 564.60 | 564.60 | 564.60 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.49% | 6.49% | 6.49% |
| Growth Rate | -13.10% | -12.10% | -11.10% |
| Fair Value | $1.47 | $1.71 | $1.93 |
| Upside / Downside | -8.31% | 6.89% | 20.79% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 233.36 | 205.12 | 180.30 | 158.49 | 139.31 | 122.46 | 126.13 |
| Payout Ratio | 48.65% | 56.92% | 65.19% | 73.46% | 81.73% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 113.53 | 116.75 | 117.54 | 116.42 | 113.86 | 110.21 | 116.67 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.49% | 6.49% | 6.49% |
| Growth Rate | -13.10% | -12.10% | -11.10% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 108.39 | 109.64 | 110.89 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 101.31 | 103.65 | 106.02 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 93.16 | 96.42 | 99.74 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 84.59 | 88.55 | 92.65 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 76.01 | 80.49 | 85.17 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,307.23 | 2,443.07 | 2,585.23 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,770.69 | 2,921.81 | 3,079.71 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 564.60 | 564.60 | 564.60 |
| Fair Value | $4.91 | $5.18 | $5.45 |
| Upside / Downside | 206.71% | 223.44% | 240.92% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |