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Poly Property Group Co., Limited (0119.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.65 - $2.26$1.96
Multi-Stage$5.47 - $6.06$5.76
Blended Fair Value$3.86
Current Price$1.51
Upside155.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.82%-9.00%0.080.050.080.090.200.120.130.000.020.08
YoY Growth--74.20%-42.11%-13.19%-52.78%69.92%-8.89%0.00%-100.00%-69.66%-61.65%
Dividend Yield--5.38%3.39%5.30%4.61%8.82%3.65%5.28%0.00%0.96%3.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,301.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)494.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)806.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)260.27162.6797.60
Cash Retained (M)806.46806.46806.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-260.27-162.67-97.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)546.20643.80708.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,821.183,821.183,821.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-8.82%-7.82%-6.82%
Fair Value$1.65$1.96$2.26
Upside / Downside9.57%29.80%49.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,301.331,199.571,105.761,019.29939.59866.11892.09
Payout Ratio38.03%48.42%58.82%69.21%79.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)494.87580.86650.37705.46747.96779.50825.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-8.82%-7.82%-6.82%
Year 1 PV (M)541.04546.98552.91
Year 2 PV (M)564.27576.71589.30
Year 3 PV (M)570.11589.08608.46
Year 4 PV (M)563.02588.13614.07
Year 5 PV (M)546.54577.18609.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,112.8519,128.1220,188.42
Equity Value (M)20,897.8422,006.2023,162.33
Shares Outstanding (M)3,821.183,821.183,821.18
Fair Value$5.47$5.76$6.06
Upside / Downside262.18%281.39%301.43%

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