Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang AngLiKang Pharmaceutical CO.,LTD. (002940.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.96 - $9.70$7.64
Multi-Stage$10.84 - $11.92$11.37
Blended Fair Value$9.50
Current Price$38.02
Upside-75.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.74%-2.42%0.300.210.170.240.450.340.010.230.150.11
YoY Growth--40.81%22.19%-27.41%-47.75%33.35%3,406.00%-95.74%55.50%34.61%-71.23%
Dividend Yield--2.15%1.28%0.75%1.29%2.53%1.69%0.05%1.44%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.6213.518.11
Cash Retained (M)67.8767.8767.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.62-13.51-8.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.2654.3659.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.37198.37198.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate-0.38%0.62%1.62%
Fair Value$5.96$7.64$9.70
Upside / Downside-84.31%-79.91%-74.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108.09108.76109.44110.12110.80111.49114.83
Payout Ratio37.21%47.77%58.32%68.88%79.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.2251.9563.8375.8588.02100.34106.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate-0.38%0.62%1.62%
Year 1 PV (M)48.1148.6049.08
Year 2 PV (M)54.7555.8556.97
Year 3 PV (M)60.2562.0963.96
Year 4 PV (M)64.7667.4070.12
Year 5 PV (M)68.3771.8775.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,854.451,949.412,048.23
Equity Value (M)2,150.692,255.212,363.86
Shares Outstanding (M)198.37198.37198.37
Fair Value$10.84$11.37$11.92
Upside / Downside-71.48%-70.10%-68.66%

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