Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Changzhou Qianhong Biopharma CO.,LTD (002550.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.15 - $12.95$8.71
Multi-Stage$12.82 - $14.11$13.46
Blended Fair Value$11.08
Current Price$9.02
Upside22.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.29%6.52%0.120.130.130.120.250.140.100.100.090.08
YoY Growth---4.58%2.34%2.41%-51.69%84.34%37.40%4.63%6.78%6.52%29.16%
Dividend Yield--2.10%2.57%2.10%2.08%6.40%2.90%1.92%1.57%1.34%1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)429.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)151.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)278.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)85.9353.7132.23
Cash Retained (M)278.51278.51278.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-85.93-53.71-32.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)192.58224.80246.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.001,240.001,240.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate0.70%1.70%2.70%
Fair Value$6.15$8.71$12.95
Upside / Downside-31.85%-3.47%43.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)429.67436.99444.42451.99459.68467.50481.53
Payout Ratio35.18%46.14%57.11%68.07%79.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)151.16201.64253.80307.68363.31420.75445.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate0.70%1.70%2.70%
Year 1 PV (M)189.71191.60193.48
Year 2 PV (M)224.66229.14233.67
Year 3 PV (M)256.24263.94271.81
Year 4 PV (M)284.67296.14307.96
Year 5 PV (M)310.17325.88342.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,636.7215,378.0416,149.09
Equity Value (M)15,902.1716,684.7517,498.23
Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.001,240.001,240.00
Fair Value$12.82$13.46$14.11
Upside / Downside42.18%49.17%56.45%

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