Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Yunnan Lincang Xinyuan Germanium Industry Co.,LTD (002428.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.54 - $4.22$2.38
Multi-Stage$1.14 - $1.24$1.19
Blended Fair Value$1.78
Current Price$28.90
Upside-93.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.94%-2.11%0.070.040.040.040.030.020.010.010.040.06
YoY Growth--81.84%5.72%-8.63%34.10%45.54%58.62%-10.05%-65.57%-29.85%-31.60%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.34%0.32%0.29%0.30%0.23%0.16%0.11%0.32%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.355.223.13
Cash Retained (M)1.241.241.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.35-5.22-3.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.11-3.98-1.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)649.21649.21649.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.54$2.38$4.22
Upside / Downside-94.66%-91.75%-85.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.7744.4847.3850.4653.7357.2358.94
Payout Ratio97.03%95.62%94.22%92.81%91.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.5342.5444.6446.8349.1251.5054.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38.6539.0239.38
Year 2 PV (M)36.8637.5638.27
Year 3 PV (M)35.1436.1437.17
Year 4 PV (M)33.4934.7836.10
Year 5 PV (M)31.9133.4535.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)561.53588.66616.82
Equity Value (M)737.57769.60802.79
Shares Outstanding (M)649.21649.21649.21
Fair Value$1.14$1.19$1.24
Upside / Downside-96.07%-95.90%-95.72%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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