Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd. (002378.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.35 - $12.27$6.77
Multi-Stage$3.88 - $4.25$4.06
Blended Fair Value$5.42
Current Price$12.40
Upside-56.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.87%3.93%0.130.150.140.060.060.070.060.050.030.04
YoY Growth---18.10%11.28%121.82%-4.35%-5.27%6.89%21.81%72.29%-13.97%-58.39%
Dividend Yield--1.86%2.66%2.26%1.06%0.98%2.14%1.21%0.82%0.41%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)215.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)142.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)73.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.1126.9516.17
Cash Retained (M)73.1373.1373.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.11-26.95-16.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.0146.1856.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,201.421,201.421,201.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.50%7.50%7.50%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Fair Value$4.35$6.77$12.27
Upside / Downside-64.93%-45.37%-1.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)215.57226.49237.96250.01262.67275.97284.25
Payout Ratio66.08%70.86%75.65%80.43%85.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)142.45160.49180.01201.08223.83248.37262.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.50%7.50%7.50%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Year 1 PV (M)147.88149.30150.72
Year 2 PV (M)152.82155.77158.75
Year 3 PV (M)157.29161.87166.54
Year 4 PV (M)161.32167.61174.09
Year 5 PV (M)164.94173.02181.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,881.334,071.444,268.92
Equity Value (M)4,665.584,879.015,100.42
Shares Outstanding (M)1,201.421,201.421,201.42
Fair Value$3.88$4.06$4.25
Upside / Downside-68.68%-67.25%-65.76%

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