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Definitive Analysis

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Asia Paper Manufacturing.Co.,Ltd (002310.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12,972.91 - $38,708.38$20,539.79
Multi-Stage$14,415.09 - $15,808.15$15,098.53
Blended Fair Value$17,819.16
Current Price$7,780.00
Upside129.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.22%16.30%409.73335.02204.14158.77136.09170.11102.07113.090.00101.79
YoY Growth--22.30%64.12%28.57%16.67%-20.00%66.67%-9.75%0.00%-100.00%12.50%
Dividend Yield--6.16%3.72%2.87%1.82%1.39%3.15%1.13%1.74%0.00%2.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,548.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,745.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,803.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,109.772,568.601,541.16
Cash Retained (M)11,803.0311,803.0311,803.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,109.77-2,568.60-1,541.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,693.279,234.4310,261.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)39.4939.4939.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share194.84233.87259.89
LTM Dividend per Share221.49221.49221.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share194.84233.87259.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend416.33455.36481.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.02%4.02%5.02%
Fair Value$12,972.91$20,539.79$38,708.38
Upside / Downside66.75%164.01%397.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,548.8421,373.9922,232.2723,125.0124,053.6125,019.4925,770.08
Payout Ratio42.56%52.05%61.54%71.02%80.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,745.8011,124.9113,680.9916,424.4119,366.0922,517.5423,837.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.02%4.02%5.02%
Year 1 PV (M)10,362.8710,463.4610,564.06
Year 2 PV (M)11,870.9212,102.5012,336.33
Year 3 PV (M)13,275.1613,665.5214,063.46
Year 4 PV (M)14,580.6015,155.0515,746.31
Year 5 PV (M)15,792.0216,573.5417,385.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)503,312.61528,220.48554,104.84
Equity Value (M)569,194.18596,180.55624,200.68
Shares Outstanding (M)39.4939.4939.49
Fair Value$14,415.09$15,098.53$15,808.15
Upside / Downside85.28%94.07%103.19%

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