Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. (002294.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.23 - $6.08$5.13
Multi-Stage$7.50 - $8.21$7.85
Blended Fair Value$6.49
Current Price$60.35
Upside-89.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.53%3.36%0.490.490.400.010.480.770.761.040.190.41
YoY Growth---0.61%24.52%2,738.49%-97.09%-37.28%1.10%-27.35%462.52%-55.02%16.98%
Dividend Yield--1.49%1.67%1.12%0.06%1.27%4.31%2.75%2.41%0.65%1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)672.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)557.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)115.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.5184.0750.44
Cash Retained (M)115.09115.09115.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.51-84.07-50.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)-19.4231.0264.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,114.151,114.151,114.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.030.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.030.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate-2.18%-1.18%-0.18%
Fair Value$4.23$5.13$6.08
Upside / Downside-92.99%-91.50%-89.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)672.56664.65656.83649.10641.46633.91652.93
Payout Ratio82.89%84.31%85.73%87.16%88.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)557.47560.37563.12565.72568.19570.52603.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate-2.18%-1.18%-0.18%
Year 1 PV (M)508.92514.12519.32
Year 2 PV (M)464.46474.00483.65
Year 3 PV (M)423.77436.90450.30
Year 4 PV (M)386.54402.59419.13
Year 5 PV (M)352.49370.88390.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,223.996,548.686,886.79
Equity Value (M)8,360.168,747.179,149.21
Shares Outstanding (M)1,114.151,114.151,114.15
Fair Value$7.50$7.85$8.21
Upside / Downside-87.57%-86.99%-86.39%

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