Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Baolingbao Biology Co.,Ltd. (002286.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.03 - $38.36$18.19
Multi-Stage$7.11 - $7.77$7.43
Blended Fair Value$12.81
Current Price$9.63
Upside33.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.53%15.62%0.150.140.140.110.070.120.170.100.080.05
YoY Growth--11.17%-5.25%34.84%60.20%-42.49%-30.96%66.57%31.95%47.42%45.83%
Dividend Yield--1.96%2.17%1.60%0.89%0.62%1.45%2.33%0.91%0.52%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)144.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)99.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.8218.0110.81
Cash Retained (M)99.8899.8899.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.82-18.01-10.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.0781.8789.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)364.73364.73364.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.03$18.19$38.36
Upside / Downside14.50%88.88%298.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)144.09153.46163.43174.05185.37197.42203.34
Payout Ratio30.68%42.54%54.41%66.27%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.2165.2988.92115.35144.84177.67188.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59.5960.1660.72
Year 2 PV (M)74.0975.5076.92
Year 3 PV (M)87.7390.2592.81
Year 4 PV (M)100.55104.42108.40
Year 5 PV (M)112.59118.03123.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,157.702,261.912,370.12
Equity Value (M)2,592.252,710.262,832.65
Shares Outstanding (M)364.73364.73364.73
Fair Value$7.11$7.43$7.77
Upside / Downside-26.20%-22.84%-19.35%

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