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Definitive Analysis

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Hunan Valin Steel Co., Ltd. (000932.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.28 - $78.98$31.03
Multi-Stage$11.64 - $12.75$12.18
Blended Fair Value$21.61
Current Price$6.49
Upside232.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.37%0.81%0.330.320.370.270.350.150.330.280.280.32
YoY Growth--2.97%-13.20%36.60%-22.30%124.94%-53.41%15.90%1.01%-11.58%5.36%
Dividend Yield--6.58%6.07%6.58%4.88%4.93%3.91%5.84%5.26%8.11%11.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,770.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,151.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,618.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)554.11346.32207.79
Cash Retained (M)1,618.581,618.581,618.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-554.11-346.32-207.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,064.471,272.261,410.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,889.626,889.626,889.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Fair Value$15.28$31.03$78.98
Upside / Downside135.50%378.15%1,116.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,770.572,913.443,063.673,221.653,387.783,562.473,669.35
Payout Ratio41.58%51.26%60.95%70.63%80.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,151.981,493.531,867.232,275.512,720.923,206.223,394.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Year 1 PV (M)1,391.011,404.371,417.72
Year 2 PV (M)1,619.691,650.941,682.49
Year 3 PV (M)1,838.361,891.821,946.30
Year 4 PV (M)2,047.312,127.082,209.15
Year 5 PV (M)2,246.882,356.832,471.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)71,024.5274,500.1378,110.48
Equity Value (M)80,167.7783,931.1687,837.19
Shares Outstanding (M)6,889.626,889.626,889.62
Fair Value$11.64$12.18$12.75
Upside / Downside79.29%87.71%96.44%

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