Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd (000739.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.73 - $147.77$138.48
Multi-Stage$21.75 - $23.79$22.75
Blended Fair Value$80.62
Current Price$16.38
Upside392.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.10%16.37%0.350.330.310.260.170.120.100.120.110.14
YoY Growth--4.86%5.57%20.17%49.95%41.74%18.54%-15.35%9.40%-20.40%84.35%
Dividend Yield--2.30%2.57%1.47%0.83%0.61%0.62%0.91%1.90%1.34%2.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)861.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)428.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)432.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)172.35107.7264.63
Cash Retained (M)432.98432.98432.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-172.35-107.72-64.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)260.63325.26368.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,159.741,159.741,159.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.280.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.280.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.73$138.48$147.77
Upside / Downside270.76%745.45%802.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)861.74917.75977.401,040.931,108.591,180.651,216.07
Payout Ratio49.76%57.80%65.85%73.90%81.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)428.76530.50643.65769.27908.501,062.591,124.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)493.29497.97502.64
Year 2 PV (M)556.53567.13577.83
Year 3 PV (M)618.50636.26654.35
Year 4 PV (M)679.22705.34732.20
Year 5 PV (M)738.70774.37811.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,136.1723,205.3524,315.46
Equity Value (M)25,222.4026,386.4127,593.90
Shares Outstanding (M)1,159.741,159.741,159.74
Fair Value$21.75$22.75$23.79
Upside / Downside32.77%38.90%45.26%

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