Definitive Analysis
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Zhongshan Public Utilities Group Co.,Ltd. (000685.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.83 - $189.40$177.50
Multi-Stage$29.75 - $32.56$31.13
Blended Fair Value$104.32
Current Price$12.37
Upside743.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.99%11.77%0.370.380.420.400.370.240.300.300.400.24
YoY Growth---2.29%-9.20%5.31%7.58%53.01%-19.37%0.38%-23.81%63.91%95.66%
Dividend Yield--4.23%4.96%5.99%4.98%4.24%3.23%3.40%3.00%3.64%2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,388.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)723.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)664.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)277.65173.53104.12
Cash Retained (M)664.82664.82664.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-277.65-173.53-104.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)387.17491.29560.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,457.671,457.671,457.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.340.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.340.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$97.83$177.50$189.40
Upside / Downside690.84%1,334.92%1,431.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,388.261,478.501,574.601,676.951,785.951,902.041,959.10
Payout Ratio52.11%59.69%67.27%74.84%82.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)723.44882.501,059.181,255.111,472.021,711.841,812.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)822.23830.03837.82
Year 2 PV (M)919.46936.97954.65
Year 3 PV (M)1,015.131,044.271,073.97
Year 4 PV (M)1,109.271,151.931,195.81
Year 5 PV (M)1,201.901,259.951,320.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,304.3040,154.4142,075.33
Equity Value (M)43,372.3045,377.5747,457.80
Shares Outstanding (M)1,457.671,457.671,457.67
Fair Value$29.75$31.13$32.56
Upside / Downside140.54%151.66%163.19%

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