Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $194.57 - $354.93 | $261.05 |
| Multi-Stage | $149.55 - $163.25 | $156.27 |
| Blended Fair Value | $208.66 | |
| Current Price | $211.50 | |
| Upside | -1.34% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.64 | 1.54 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 6.40% | 33.45% | 0.00% | 90.45% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.06% | 0.88% | 0.75% | 0.89% | 0.70% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 645.80 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 86.40 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 559.40 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 129.16 | 80.73 | 48.44 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 559.40 | 559.40 | 559.40 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -129.16 | -80.73 | -48.44 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 430.24 | 478.68 | 510.97 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 49.60 | 49.60 | 49.60 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 8.67 | 9.65 | 10.30 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.74 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 8.67 | 9.65 | 10.30 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 10.42 | 11.39 | 12.04 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 11.15% | 11.15% | 11.15% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $194.57 | $261.05 | $354.93 |
| Upside / Downside | -8.00% | 23.43% | 67.82% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 645.80 | 687.78 | 732.48 | 780.09 | 830.80 | 884.80 | 911.35 |
| Payout Ratio | 13.38% | 28.70% | 44.03% | 59.35% | 74.68% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 86.40 | 197.41 | 322.49 | 463.00 | 620.41 | 796.32 | 843.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 11.15% | 11.15% | 11.15% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 175.95 | 177.61 | 179.28 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 256.17 | 261.05 | 265.97 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 327.78 | 337.19 | 346.78 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 391.46 | 406.51 | 422.00 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 447.82 | 469.45 | 491.90 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 5,818.34 | 6,099.36 | 6,391.15 |
| Equity Value (M) | 7,417.50 | 7,751.17 | 8,097.08 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 49.60 | 49.60 | 49.60 |
| Fair Value | $149.55 | $156.27 | $163.25 |
| Upside / Downside | -29.29% | -26.11% | -22.81% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |