Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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VSE Corporation (VSEC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.00 - $54.70$35.89
Multi-Stage$18.36 - $20.04$19.19
Blended Fair Value$27.54
Current Price$166.24
Upside-83.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.64%13.25%0.340.260.250.210.190.180.160.140.120.11
YoY Growth--29.87%6.36%15.45%11.51%6.55%14.22%15.84%13.50%9.88%11.01%
Dividend Yield--0.28%0.33%0.55%0.46%0.49%1.10%0.47%0.26%0.29%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.323.321.99
Cash Retained (M)18.3518.3518.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.32-3.32-1.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.0315.0316.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.7120.7120.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.730.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.730.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.031.121.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.00$35.89$54.70
Upside / Downside-84.96%-78.41%-67.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.5828.3130.1532.1134.2036.4237.52
Payout Ratio30.98%42.78%54.59%66.39%78.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.2412.1116.4621.3226.7432.7834.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10.9311.0311.13
Year 2 PV (M)13.3913.6413.90
Year 3 PV (M)15.6416.0916.55
Year 4 PV (M)17.7018.3819.08
Year 5 PV (M)19.5620.5121.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)303.04317.68332.87
Equity Value (M)380.26397.33415.02
Shares Outstanding (M)20.7120.7120.71
Fair Value$18.36$19.19$20.04
Upside / Downside-88.95%-88.46%-87.94%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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