Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $13.09 - $16.92 | $15.12 |
| Multi-Stage | $26.99 - $30.01 | $28.47 |
| Blended Fair Value | $21.80 | |
| Current Price | $40.53 | |
| Upside | -46.22% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -22.47% | -12.68% | 0.71 | 0.65 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 4.17 | 2.54 | 2.69 | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.39 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 9.33% | -68.25% | 0.11% | -50.91% | 64.22% | -5.74% | 7.65% | 4.31% | 0.25% | -13.34% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.92% | 2.32% | 13.33% | 4.51% | 9.18% | 7.01% | 3.98% | 3.72% | 2.96% | 3.13% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 905.56 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 141.10 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 764.45 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 181.11 | 113.19 | 67.92 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 764.45 | 764.45 | 764.45 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -181.11 | -113.19 | -67.92 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 583.34 | 651.26 | 696.54 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 198.48 | 198.48 | 198.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.94 | 3.28 | 3.51 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.94 | 3.28 | 3.51 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.65 | 3.99 | 4.22 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -14.68% | -13.68% | -12.68% |
| Fair Value | $13.09 | $15.12 | $16.92 |
| Upside / Downside | -67.70% | -62.68% | -58.26% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 905.56 | 781.63 | 674.67 | 582.34 | 502.64 | 433.86 | 446.87 |
| Payout Ratio | 15.58% | 30.47% | 45.35% | 60.23% | 75.12% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 141.10 | 238.13 | 305.96 | 350.76 | 377.57 | 390.47 | 413.36 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -14.68% | -13.68% | -12.68% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 215.74 | 218.27 | 220.80 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 251.13 | 257.05 | 263.04 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 260.84 | 270.12 | 279.62 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 254.38 | 266.52 | 279.09 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 238.34 | 252.64 | 267.62 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,137.62 | 4,385.87 | 4,645.88 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,358.06 | 5,650.47 | 5,956.05 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 198.48 | 198.48 | 198.48 |
| Fair Value | $26.99 | $28.47 | $30.01 |
| Upside / Downside | -33.40% | -29.76% | -25.96% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |