Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $8.05 - $11.32 | $9.67 |
| Multi-Stage | $14.62 - $16.03 | $15.32 |
| Blended Fair Value | $12.49 | |
| Current Price | $10.94 | |
| Upside | 14.21% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -10.95% | -1.36% | 0.82 | 0.83 | 0.86 | 0.83 | 1.55 | 1.46 | 1.37 | 1.29 | 1.22 | 1.09 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -1.58% | -2.68% | 2.78% | -46.18% | 5.72% | 6.56% | 6.30% | 5.74% | 12.44% | 15.63% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 7.66% | 6.94% | 7.11% | 5.97% | 16.43% | 14.14% | 7.43% | 7.19% | 6.50% | 6.31% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 199.67 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 126.49 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 73.19 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 39.93 | 24.96 | 14.98 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 73.19 | 73.19 | 73.19 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -39.93 | -24.96 | -14.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 33.25 | 48.23 | 58.21 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 153.96 | 153.96 | 153.96 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.22 | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.22 | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.04 | 1.13 | 1.20 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -3.36% | -2.36% | -1.36% |
| Fair Value | $8.05 | $9.67 | $11.32 |
| Upside / Downside | -26.41% | -11.58% | 3.46% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 199.67 | 194.97 | 190.37 | 185.89 | 181.50 | 177.23 | 182.54 |
| Payout Ratio | 63.35% | 68.68% | 74.01% | 79.34% | 84.67% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 126.49 | 133.90 | 140.89 | 147.48 | 153.68 | 159.50 | 168.85 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -3.36% | -2.36% | -1.36% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 121.48 | 122.73 | 123.99 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 115.96 | 118.37 | 120.81 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 110.12 | 113.58 | 117.10 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 104.10 | 108.48 | 112.99 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 98.02 | 103.20 | 108.60 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,701.70 | 1,791.58 | 1,885.22 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,251.39 | 2,357.95 | 2,468.71 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 153.96 | 153.96 | 153.96 |
| Fair Value | $14.62 | $15.32 | $16.03 |
| Upside / Downside | 33.67% | 39.99% | 46.57% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |