Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Unibel S.A. (UNBL.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$973.23 - $1,728.46$1,292.16
Multi-Stage$2,021.52 - $2,224.48$2,121.03
Blended Fair Value$1,706.59
Current Price$980.00
Upside74.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.84%-6.41%9.0710.508.4011.037.4915.2217.5720.9120.1316.13
YoY Growth---13.64%25.00%-23.81%47.13%-50.78%-13.33%-15.99%3.85%24.85%-8.35%
Dividend Yield--0.93%1.05%0.85%1.11%1.27%2.62%2.39%2.35%2.14%1.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)151.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)100.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.3818.9911.39
Cash Retained (M)100.10100.10100.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.38-18.99-11.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)69.7281.1188.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.092.092.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.2838.7242.34
LTM Dividend per Share24.7324.7324.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.2838.7242.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend58.0163.4567.07
WACC / Discount Rate5.84%5.84%5.84%
Growth Rate-0.11%0.89%1.89%
Fair Value$973.23$1,292.16$1,728.46
Upside / Downside-0.69%31.85%76.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)151.90153.25154.62155.99157.38158.78163.55
Payout Ratio34.10%45.28%56.46%67.64%78.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.8069.3987.30105.51124.05142.90151.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.84%5.84%5.84%
Growth Rate-0.11%0.89%1.89%
Year 1 PV (M)64.9165.5666.21
Year 2 PV (M)76.3977.9279.48
Year 3 PV (M)86.3688.9891.66
Year 4 PV (M)94.9898.84102.82
Year 5 PV (M)102.35107.58113.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,809.934,004.494,206.93
Equity Value (M)4,234.924,443.384,660.10
Shares Outstanding (M)2.092.092.09
Fair Value$2,021.52$2,121.03$2,224.48
Upside / Downside106.28%116.43%126.99%

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