Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $15.66 - $24.61 | $19.76 |
| Multi-Stage | $21.16 - $23.14 | $22.13 |
| Blended Fair Value | $20.95 | |
| Current Price | $17.85 | |
| Upside | 17.35% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 4.62% | 14.71% | 0.84 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.46 | 0.23 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.80% | -0.67% | -0.07% | 6.43% | 19.61% | 3.07% | 4.80% | 35.66% | 95.46% | 9.89% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.70% | 4.48% | 4.85% | 7.81% | 4.69% | 3.12% | 3.66% | 3.90% | 2.66% | 1.25% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 336.75 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 182.27 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 154.48 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 67.35 | 42.09 | 25.26 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 154.48 | 154.48 | 154.48 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -67.35 | -42.09 | -25.26 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 87.13 | 112.39 | 129.22 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 217.41 | 217.41 | 217.41 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.40 | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.40 | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.24 | 1.36 | 1.43 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.10% | 2.10% | 3.10% |
| Fair Value | $15.66 | $19.76 | $24.61 |
| Upside / Downside | -12.29% | 10.71% | 37.88% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 336.75 | 343.81 | 351.02 | 358.37 | 365.89 | 373.56 | 384.76 |
| Payout Ratio | 54.13% | 61.30% | 68.48% | 75.65% | 82.83% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 182.27 | 210.76 | 240.36 | 271.11 | 303.05 | 336.20 | 355.91 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.10% | 2.10% | 3.10% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 191.29 | 193.18 | 195.08 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 198.01 | 201.95 | 205.92 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 202.71 | 208.79 | 214.98 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 205.66 | 213.92 | 222.42 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 207.08 | 217.53 | 228.39 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 3,594.92 | 3,776.27 | 3,964.86 |
| Equity Value (M) | 4,599.67 | 4,811.63 | 5,031.65 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 217.41 | 217.41 | 217.41 |
| Fair Value | $21.16 | $22.13 | $23.14 |
| Upside / Downside | 18.53% | 23.99% | 29.66% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |