Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGPA3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$155.66 - $529.34$496.05
Multi-Stage$77.23 - $84.58$80.84
Blended Fair Value$288.45
Current Price$21.97
Upside1,212.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.93%0.63%0.750.360.570.630.260.540.730.850.790.75
YoY Growth--108.40%-37.33%-9.56%147.84%-52.26%-26.24%-14.00%7.67%5.00%6.21%
Dividend Yield--4.38%1.28%4.11%4.45%1.19%4.28%3.12%2.46%2.27%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,972.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)951.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,021.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)594.43371.52222.91
Cash Retained (M)2,021.162,021.162,021.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-594.43-371.52-222.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,426.721,649.631,798.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,111.661,111.661,111.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.281.481.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.281.481.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.142.342.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate5.02%6.02%7.02%
Fair Value$155.66$496.05$529.34
Upside / Downside608.50%2,157.86%2,309.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,972.173,151.103,340.803,541.923,755.153,981.224,100.65
Payout Ratio32.00%43.60%55.20%66.80%78.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)951.011,373.811,844.072,365.962,944.023,583.093,793.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate5.02%6.02%7.02%
Year 1 PV (M)1,278.241,290.411,302.58
Year 2 PV (M)1,596.411,626.961,657.80
Year 3 PV (M)1,905.731,960.692,016.70
Year 4 PV (M)2,206.372,291.612,379.30
Year 5 PV (M)2,498.512,619.752,745.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)76,371.7580,077.7183,926.16
Equity Value (M)85,857.0189,867.1394,028.18
Shares Outstanding (M)1,111.661,111.661,111.66
Fair Value$77.23$80.84$84.58
Upside / Downside251.54%267.96%285.00%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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