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Definitive Analysis

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The Lottery Corporation Limited (TLC.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.93 - $4.40$3.63
Multi-Stage$6.00 - $6.58$6.28
Blended Fair Value$4.96
Current Price$5.33
Upside-7.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.150.120.090.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--25.93%36.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.86%2.38%1.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)779.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)610.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)169.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)155.9097.4458.46
Cash Retained (M)169.50169.50169.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-155.90-97.44-58.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.6072.06111.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,229.092,229.092,229.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.32
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.93$3.63$4.40
Upside / Downside-44.97%-31.92%-17.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)779.50771.71763.99756.35748.78741.30763.54
Payout Ratio78.26%80.60%82.95%85.30%87.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)610.00622.03633.75645.18656.32667.17706.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)573.60579.45585.30
Year 2 PV (M)538.91549.96561.13
Year 3 PV (M)505.91521.56537.52
Year 4 PV (M)474.57494.24514.52
Year 5 PV (M)444.86468.02492.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,831.3611,395.3711,982.64
Equity Value (M)13,369.2114,008.6114,673.25
Shares Outstanding (M)2,229.092,229.092,229.09
Fair Value$6.00$6.28$6.58
Upside / Downside12.53%17.91%23.50%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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