Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $24.98 - $66.26 | $38.20 |
| Multi-Stage | $17.85 - $19.46 | $18.64 |
| Blended Fair Value | $28.42 | |
| Current Price | $58.74 | |
| Upside | -51.62% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 14.14% | 14.68% | 0.62 | 0.55 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 12.73% | 24.92% | 1.42% | 30.01% | 4.32% | 0.72% | 25.18% | 11.94% | 18.80% | 21.13% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.14% | 1.19% | 1.16% | 1.23% | 0.96% | 1.32% | 1.13% | 1.11% | 1.36% | 1.57% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 515.94 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 319.48 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 196.46 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 103.19 | 64.49 | 38.70 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 196.46 | 196.46 | 196.46 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -103.19 | -64.49 | -38.70 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 93.28 | 131.97 | 157.77 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 484.50 | 484.50 | 484.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.19 | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.19 | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.85 | 0.93 | 0.99 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $24.98 | $38.20 | $66.26 |
| Upside / Downside | -57.47% | -34.97% | 12.81% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 515.94 | 549.48 | 585.19 | 623.23 | 663.74 | 706.88 | 728.09 |
| Payout Ratio | 61.92% | 67.54% | 73.15% | 78.77% | 84.38% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 319.48 | 371.10 | 428.08 | 490.91 | 560.09 | 636.19 | 673.48 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 336.96 | 340.15 | 343.35 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 352.94 | 359.66 | 366.45 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 367.50 | 378.05 | 388.80 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 380.72 | 395.36 | 410.42 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 392.66 | 411.63 | 431.32 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 6,816.61 | 7,145.85 | 7,487.70 |
| Equity Value (M) | 8,647.38 | 9,030.70 | 9,428.03 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 484.50 | 484.50 | 484.50 |
| Fair Value | $17.85 | $18.64 | $19.46 |
| Upside / Downside | -69.62% | -68.27% | -66.87% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |