Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Virginia Tax Free Bond Fund (PRVAX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset Management - BondsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.14 - $0.20$0.17
Multi-Stage$0.52 - $0.58$0.55
Blended Fair Value$0.36
Current Price$10.27
Upside-96.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS-8.15%0.00%0.030.030.030.040.040.050.060.060.060.06
YoY Growth--13.25%-15.84%-12.51%-6.35%-16.30%-16.66%0.00%-1.21%0.55%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.29%0.24%0.27%0.32%0.35%0.42%0.50%0.49%0.49%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.620.380.23
Cash Retained (M)0.340.340.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.62-0.38-0.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.28-0.050.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.53119.53119.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate5.83%5.83%5.83%
Growth Rate-7.42%-6.42%-5.42%
Fair Value$0.14$0.17$0.20
Upside / Downside-98.60%-98.32%-98.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3.082.882.702.522.362.212.28
Payout Ratio89.04%89.23%89.43%89.62%89.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.742.572.412.262.121.992.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.83%5.83%5.83%
Growth Rate-7.42%-6.42%-5.42%
Year 1 PV (M)2.402.432.46
Year 2 PV (M)2.112.152.20
Year 3 PV (M)1.851.911.97
Year 4 PV (M)1.621.691.76
Year 5 PV (M)1.421.501.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)53.1056.0359.08
Equity Value (M)62.4965.7069.05
Shares Outstanding (M)119.53119.53119.53
Fair Value$0.52$0.55$0.58
Upside / Downside-94.91%-94.65%-94.38%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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