Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Parkland Corporation (PKI.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$167.66 - $380.25$356.35
Multi-Stage$58.04 - $63.45$60.70
Blended Fair Value$208.52
Current Price$38.50
Upside441.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.34%25.80%1.381.350.690.750.770.650.580.550.360.15
YoY Growth--2.53%95.87%-8.33%-2.94%19.30%11.76%5.15%52.04%134.56%11.14%
Dividend Yield--3.84%3.19%2.13%2.03%2.05%2.61%1.38%1.91%1.23%0.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)336.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)248.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)88.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.2042.0025.20
Cash Retained (M)88.0088.0088.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.20-42.00-25.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.8046.0062.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)175.73175.73175.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.260.36
LTM Dividend per Share1.411.411.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.260.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.531.671.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$167.66$356.35$380.25
Upside / Downside335.48%825.57%887.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)336.00357.84381.10405.87432.25460.35474.16
Payout Ratio73.81%77.05%80.29%83.52%86.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)248.00275.71305.97339.00375.03414.31438.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)256.54258.97261.40
Year 2 PV (M)264.90269.95275.04
Year 3 PV (M)273.10280.94288.92
Year 4 PV (M)281.12291.93303.05
Year 5 PV (M)288.98302.93317.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,835.029,261.769,704.83
Equity Value (M)10,199.6610,666.4811,150.67
Shares Outstanding (M)175.73175.73175.73
Fair Value$58.04$60.70$63.45
Upside / Downside50.75%57.65%64.81%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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