Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $22.10 - $35.21 | $28.06 |
| Multi-Stage | $29.81 - $32.56 | $31.16 |
| Blended Fair Value | $29.61 | |
| Current Price | $47.25 | |
| Upside | -37.34% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -11.24% | -4.15% | 1.47 | 1.38 | 1.20 | 0.85 | 1.87 | 2.66 | 2.41 | 2.38 | 2.34 | 2.30 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 5.93% | 15.29% | 41.12% | -54.53% | -29.69% | 10.53% | 1.19% | 1.60% | 1.99% | 2.44% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.97% | 2.09% | 1.92% | 1.50% | 7.03% | 22.98% | 3.58% | 3.66% | 3.70% | 3.36% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,067.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,563.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 504.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 413.40 | 258.38 | 155.03 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 504.00 | 504.00 | 504.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -413.40 | -258.38 | -155.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 90.60 | 245.63 | 348.98 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 986.13 | 986.13 | 986.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.58 | 1.58 | 1.58 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.68 | 1.83 | 1.94 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.40% | 2.40% | 3.40% |
| Fair Value | $22.10 | $28.06 | $35.21 |
| Upside / Downside | -53.23% | -40.62% | -25.49% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,067.00 | 2,116.68 | 2,167.56 | 2,219.65 | 2,273.00 | 2,327.63 | 2,397.46 |
| Payout Ratio | 75.62% | 78.49% | 81.37% | 84.25% | 87.12% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,563.00 | 1,661.46 | 1,763.74 | 1,869.99 | 1,980.32 | 2,094.87 | 2,217.65 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.40% | 2.40% | 3.40% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,508.03 | 1,522.90 | 1,537.77 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,453.04 | 1,481.84 | 1,510.92 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,398.31 | 1,440.08 | 1,482.69 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,344.06 | 1,397.87 | 1,453.28 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,290.52 | 1,355.42 | 1,422.90 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 22,403.36 | 23,530.03 | 24,701.57 |
| Equity Value (M) | 29,397.32 | 30,728.14 | 32,109.14 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 986.13 | 986.13 | 986.13 |
| Fair Value | $29.81 | $31.16 | $32.56 |
| Upside / Downside | -36.91% | -34.05% | -31.09% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |