Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $25.55 - $45.04 | $33.82 |
| Multi-Stage | $43.07 - $47.17 | $45.08 |
| Blended Fair Value | $39.45 | |
| Current Price | $30.25 | |
| Upside | 30.41% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -3.07% | -0.76% | 1.78 | 1.79 | 2.02 | 1.78 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 2.05 | 2.00 | 1.96 | 1.96 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.66% | -11.16% | 13.50% | -14.59% | 0.00% | 1.22% | 2.74% | 2.19% | 0.08% | 1.85% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.69% | 5.62% | 5.92% | 5.52% | 5.58% | 6.38% | 5.52% | 4.95% | 5.24% | 5.47% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 129.30 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 126.90 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2.40 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 25.86 | 16.16 | 9.70 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -25.86 | -16.16 | -9.70 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -23.46 | -13.76 | -7.30 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 67.55 | 67.55 | 67.55 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.35 | -0.20 | -0.11 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.35 | -0.20 | -0.11 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.53 | 1.67 | 1.77 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.84% | 6.84% | 6.84% |
| Growth Rate | 0.80% | 1.80% | 2.80% |
| Fair Value | $25.55 | $33.82 | $45.04 |
| Upside / Downside | -15.54% | 11.80% | 48.89% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 129.30 | 131.62 | 133.99 | 136.39 | 138.84 | 141.33 | 145.57 |
| Payout Ratio | 98.14% | 96.52% | 94.89% | 93.26% | 91.63% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 126.90 | 127.03 | 127.13 | 127.19 | 127.22 | 127.20 | 134.66 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.84% | 6.84% | 6.84% |
| Growth Rate | 0.80% | 1.80% | 2.80% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 117.74 | 118.91 | 120.07 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 109.21 | 111.38 | 113.58 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 101.26 | 104.31 | 107.41 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 93.87 | 97.65 | 101.54 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 86.99 | 91.39 | 95.97 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,400.15 | 2,521.60 | 2,647.91 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,909.21 | 3,045.23 | 3,186.49 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 67.55 | 67.55 | 67.55 |
| Fair Value | $43.07 | $45.08 | $47.17 |
| Upside / Downside | 42.37% | 49.02% | 55.94% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |