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Definitive Analysis

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Novartis AG (NOVN.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.72 - $134.37$105.14
Multi-Stage$171.42 - $188.48$179.78
Blended Fair Value$142.46
Current Price$125.70
Upside13.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.79%1.14%3.863.673.803.733.543.363.533.293.283.36
YoY Growth--5.09%-3.34%1.87%5.45%5.15%-4.61%7.25%0.31%-2.53%-2.45%
Dividend Yield--3.49%3.88%4.15%4.24%4.13%4.06%4.15%4.59%5.01%5.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,393.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,818.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,575.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,878.601,799.131,079.48
Cash Retained (M)6,575.006,575.006,575.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,878.60-1,799.13-1,079.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,696.404,775.885,495.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,975.751,975.751,975.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.872.422.78
LTM Dividend per Share3.963.963.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.872.422.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.836.376.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-0.78%0.22%1.22%
Fair Value$81.72$105.14$134.37
Upside / Downside-34.99%-16.36%6.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,393.0014,424.8014,456.6714,488.6014,520.6114,552.6914,989.27
Payout Ratio54.32%61.45%68.59%75.73%82.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,818.008,864.689,915.9510,971.8212,032.3013,097.4213,865.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-0.78%0.22%1.22%
Year 1 PV (M)8,256.338,339.548,422.75
Year 2 PV (M)8,601.658,775.918,951.91
Year 3 PV (M)8,864.419,135.149,411.33
Year 4 PV (M)9,054.079,424.639,806.45
Year 5 PV (M)9,179.209,651.1810,142.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)294,726.25309,880.68325,652.17
Equity Value (M)338,681.91355,207.08372,386.99
Shares Outstanding (M)1,975.751,975.751,975.75
Fair Value$171.42$179.78$188.48
Upside / Downside36.37%43.03%49.94%

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