Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $27.93 - $44.67 | $35.52 |
| Multi-Stage | $59.60 - $65.55 | $62.51 |
| Blended Fair Value | $49.02 | |
| Current Price | $25.75 | |
| Upside | 90.35% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.80% | 0.00% | 1.67 | 5.56 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.46 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -70.05% | 520.83% | 27.03% | 51.87% | -70.99% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.89% | 14.25% | 2.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 808.15 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 405.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 403.15 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 161.63 | 101.02 | 60.61 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 403.15 | 403.15 | 403.15 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -161.63 | -101.02 | -60.61 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 241.52 | 302.13 | 342.54 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 300.00 | 300.00 | 300.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.81 | 1.01 | 1.14 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.81 | 1.01 | 1.14 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.16 | 2.36 | 2.49 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.42% | 6.42% | 6.42% |
| Growth Rate | -1.20% | -0.20% | 0.80% |
| Fair Value | $27.93 | $35.52 | $44.67 |
| Upside / Downside | 8.47% | 37.93% | 73.47% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 808.15 | 806.54 | 804.93 | 803.32 | 801.72 | 800.12 | 824.12 |
| Payout Ratio | 50.11% | 58.09% | 66.07% | 74.05% | 82.02% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 405.00 | 468.53 | 531.80 | 594.82 | 657.59 | 720.10 | 762.31 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.42% | 6.42% | 6.42% |
| Growth Rate | -1.20% | -0.20% | 0.80% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 435.84 | 440.25 | 444.66 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 460.18 | 469.54 | 479.00 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 478.80 | 493.49 | 508.47 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 492.39 | 512.63 | 533.49 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 501.58 | 527.48 | 554.44 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 15,509.88 | 16,310.84 | 17,144.55 |
| Equity Value (M) | 17,878.67 | 18,754.24 | 19,664.62 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 300.00 | 300.00 | 300.00 |
| Fair Value | $59.60 | $62.51 | $65.55 |
| Upside / Downside | 131.44% | 142.77% | 154.56% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |