Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.63 - $34.86$29.01
Multi-Stage$22.47 - $24.53$23.48
Blended Fair Value$26.25
Current Price$93.74
Upside-72.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.39%5.39%0.240.240.230.220.180.180.170.140.140.14
YoY Growth--0.34%1.17%7.02%18.93%0.64%7.76%24.18%-2.49%-0.43%0.02%
Dividend Yield--0.38%0.35%0.59%0.38%0.41%0.69%0.68%0.68%0.94%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,474.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)206.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,268.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)494.84309.28185.57
Cash Retained (M)2,268.002,268.002,268.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-494.84-309.28-185.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,773.161,958.732,082.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)870.35870.35870.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.042.252.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.042.252.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.272.492.63
WACC / Discount Rate13.34%13.34%13.34%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Fair Value$23.63$29.01$34.86
Upside / Downside-74.79%-69.05%-62.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,474.202,582.712,695.982,814.222,937.643,066.483,158.47
Payout Ratio8.33%24.67%41.00%57.33%73.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)206.20637.081,105.361,613.492,164.072,759.832,921.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate13.34%13.34%13.34%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Year 1 PV (M)556.74562.12567.51
Year 2 PV (M)844.14860.55877.11
Year 3 PV (M)1,076.791,108.331,140.49
Year 4 PV (M)1,262.081,311.621,362.61
Year 5 PV (M)1,406.541,475.891,547.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,406.6615,117.0115,855.11
Equity Value (M)19,552.9420,435.5321,350.79
Shares Outstanding (M)870.35870.35870.35
Fair Value$22.47$23.48$24.53
Upside / Downside-76.03%-74.95%-73.83%

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