Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $37.14 - $63.74 | $48.63 |
| Multi-Stage | $42.76 - $46.70 | $44.69 |
| Blended Fair Value | $46.66 | |
| Current Price | $70.37 | |
| Upside | -33.69% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 8.34% | 8.89% | 1.67 | 1.55 | 1.47 | 1.35 | 1.22 | 1.12 | 1.01 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 7.77% | 5.50% | 9.19% | 10.06% | 9.23% | 10.53% | 15.07% | 9.09% | 6.30% | 6.50% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.03% | 2.26% | 1.98% | 1.42% | 1.45% | 1.53% | 1.49% | 1.65% | 1.64% | 1.63% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 778.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 474.90 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 303.10 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 155.60 | 97.25 | 58.35 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 303.10 | 303.10 | 303.10 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -155.60 | -97.25 | -58.35 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 147.50 | 205.85 | 244.75 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 269.48 | 269.48 | 269.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.55 | 0.76 | 0.91 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.76 | 1.76 | 1.76 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.55 | 0.76 | 0.91 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.31 | 2.53 | 2.67 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.71% | 3.71% | 4.71% |
| Fair Value | $37.14 | $48.63 | $63.74 |
| Upside / Downside | -47.22% | -30.89% | -9.42% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 778.00 | 806.87 | 836.81 | 867.86 | 900.07 | 933.47 | 961.47 |
| Payout Ratio | 61.04% | 66.83% | 72.62% | 78.42% | 84.21% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 474.90 | 539.25 | 607.73 | 680.55 | 757.93 | 840.12 | 889.36 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.71% | 3.71% | 4.71% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 489.52 | 494.28 | 499.05 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 500.80 | 510.60 | 520.49 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 509.08 | 524.09 | 539.40 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 514.67 | 535.01 | 555.95 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 517.87 | 543.57 | 570.29 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 8,990.17 | 9,436.42 | 9,900.21 |
| Equity Value (M) | 11,522.10 | 12,043.98 | 12,585.39 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 269.48 | 269.48 | 269.48 |
| Fair Value | $42.76 | $44.69 | $46.70 |
| Upside / Downside | -39.24% | -36.49% | -33.63% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |