Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.62 - $46.85$38.20
Multi-Stage$66.75 - $73.42$70.02
Blended Fair Value$54.11
Current Price$43.36
Upside24.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.71%13.25%1.821.721.611.441.350.811.031.030.920.82
YoY Growth--6.29%6.64%11.48%6.84%67.38%-21.81%0.45%11.74%11.63%56.81%
Dividend Yield--4.07%5.16%6.49%5.41%5.00%4.58%4.44%4.34%3.89%4.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,905.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,261.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,644.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,181.00738.13442.88
Cash Retained (M)2,644.002,644.002,644.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,181.00-738.13-442.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,463.001,905.882,201.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,731.251,731.251,731.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.851.101.27
LTM Dividend per Share1.881.881.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.851.101.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.732.983.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$30.62$38.20$46.85
Upside / Downside-29.39%-11.89%8.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,905.005,845.955,787.495,729.625,672.325,615.605,784.06
Payout Ratio55.22%62.18%69.13%76.09%83.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,261.003,634.984,001.164,359.654,710.575,054.045,350.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,371.253,405.653,440.05
Year 2 PV (M)3,441.623,512.223,583.53
Year 3 PV (M)3,477.903,585.463,695.21
Year 4 PV (M)3,485.203,629.653,778.54
Year 5 PV (M)3,468.023,648.603,836.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)98,323.34103,443.27108,774.29
Equity Value (M)115,567.33121,224.84127,108.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1,731.251,731.251,731.25
Fair Value$66.75$70.02$73.42
Upside / Downside53.95%61.49%69.33%

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