Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Millennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand Limited (MCKPA.NZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.81 - $1.12$0.97
Multi-Stage$2.62 - $2.90$2.75
Blended Fair Value$1.86
Current Price$1.70
Upside9.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.74%-5.94%0.030.030.040.020.070.070.090.070.050.04
YoY Growth--0.00%-14.28%41.49%-67.02%0.00%-13.54%18.59%60.38%9.05%-24.46%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.38%1.59%1.06%3.38%2.34%2.60%2.66%1.90%2.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.973.101.86
Cash Retained (M)10.6010.6010.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.97-3.10-1.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.637.498.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)158.22158.22158.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-7.94%-6.94%-5.94%
Fair Value$0.81$0.97$1.12
Upside / Downside-52.17%-43.11%-34.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24.8423.1121.5120.0118.6317.3317.85
Payout Ratio57.34%63.87%70.40%76.94%83.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.2414.7615.1415.4015.5515.6016.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-7.94%-6.94%-5.94%
Year 1 PV (M)13.7413.8914.04
Year 2 PV (M)13.1213.4113.70
Year 3 PV (M)12.4212.8313.25
Year 4 PV (M)11.6712.1912.72
Year 5 PV (M)10.9011.5112.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)352.48372.04392.47
Equity Value (M)414.33435.86458.31
Shares Outstanding (M)158.22158.22158.22
Fair Value$2.62$2.75$2.90
Upside / Downside54.04%62.05%70.39%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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