Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $8.50 - $11.56 | $10.06 |
| Multi-Stage | $16.71 - $18.38 | $17.53 |
| Blended Fair Value | $13.79 | |
| Current Price | $16.27 | |
| Upside | -15.22% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -12.10% | -3.50% | 1.96 | 1.95 | 2.12 | 1.30 | 0.96 | 3.74 | 3.54 | 3.26 | 3.17 | 3.09 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.91% | -7.95% | 62.59% | 36.11% | -74.47% | 5.75% | 8.70% | 2.79% | 2.58% | 10.09% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 26.19% | 8.05% | 9.60% | 2.25% | 1.63% | 21.22% | 5.12% | 5.16% | 8.12% | 6.97% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 194.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 98.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 96.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 38.80 | 24.25 | 14.55 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 96.00 | 96.00 | 96.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -38.80 | -24.25 | -14.55 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 57.20 | 71.75 | 81.45 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 113.00 | 113.00 | 113.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.51 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.87 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.51 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.37 | 1.50 | 1.59 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -6.08% | -5.08% | -4.08% |
| Fair Value | $8.50 | $10.06 | $11.56 |
| Upside / Downside | -47.75% | -38.17% | -28.94% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 194.00 | 184.15 | 174.80 | 165.93 | 157.50 | 149.51 | 153.99 |
| Payout Ratio | 50.52% | 58.41% | 66.31% | 74.21% | 82.10% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 98.00 | 107.57 | 115.91 | 123.13 | 129.31 | 134.56 | 142.44 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -6.08% | -5.08% | -4.08% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 97.56 | 98.60 | 99.64 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 95.34 | 97.38 | 99.45 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 91.86 | 94.82 | 97.85 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 87.49 | 91.28 | 95.19 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 82.57 | 87.06 | 91.74 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,433.40 | 1,511.35 | 1,592.66 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,888.22 | 1,980.49 | 2,076.52 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 113.00 | 113.00 | 113.00 |
| Fair Value | $16.71 | $17.53 | $18.38 |
| Upside / Downside | 2.70% | 7.72% | 12.95% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |