Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $180.29 - $419.61 | $264.32 |
| Multi-Stage | $127.06 - $138.84 | $132.84 |
| Blended Fair Value | $198.58 | |
| Current Price | $302.68 | |
| Upside | -34.39% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 7.55% | 8.75% | 1.24 | 1.12 | 1.02 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 10.96% | 10.18% | 4.72% | 5.11% | 6.93% | 5.72% | 7.02% | 12.11% | 11.97% | 13.25% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.37% | 0.34% | 0.49% | 0.49% | 0.49% | 1.22% | 0.93% | 0.81% | 1.15% | 1.35% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 101.98 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 15.53 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 86.45 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 20.40 | 12.75 | 7.65 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 86.45 | 86.45 | 86.45 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -20.40 | -12.75 | -7.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 66.05 | 73.70 | 78.80 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 11.79 | 11.79 | 11.79 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 5.60 | 6.25 | 6.69 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.32 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 5.60 | 6.25 | 6.69 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 6.92 | 7.57 | 8.00 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.55% | 9.55% | 9.55% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $180.29 | $264.32 | $419.61 |
| Upside / Downside | -40.43% | -12.67% | 38.63% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 101.98 | 108.60 | 115.66 | 123.18 | 131.19 | 139.72 | 143.91 |
| Payout Ratio | 15.23% | 30.18% | 45.14% | 60.09% | 75.05% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 15.53 | 32.78 | 52.21 | 74.02 | 98.45 | 125.74 | 133.11 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.55% | 9.55% | 9.55% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 29.64 | 29.92 | 30.20 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 42.69 | 43.50 | 44.32 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 54.73 | 56.30 | 57.90 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 65.82 | 68.35 | 70.96 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 76.02 | 79.69 | 83.51 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,228.58 | 1,287.92 | 1,349.53 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,497.48 | 1,565.69 | 1,636.42 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 11.79 | 11.79 | 11.79 |
| Fair Value | $127.06 | $132.84 | $138.84 |
| Upside / Downside | -58.02% | -56.11% | -54.13% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |