Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $26.27 - $37.95 | $31.95 |
| Multi-Stage | $44.13 - $48.34 | $46.19 |
| Blended Fair Value | $39.07 | |
| Current Price | $77.94 | |
| Upside | -49.87% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.18% | 1.33% | 2.22 | 2.29 | 2.28 | 2.25 | 2.24 | 2.20 | 2.18 | 2.10 | 2.05 | 2.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -3.00% | 0.38% | 1.14% | 0.77% | 1.69% | 0.92% | 3.53% | 2.79% | 2.29% | 2.94% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.69% | 3.99% | 3.63% | 3.66% | 3.76% | 3.94% | 4.05% | 3.45% | 3.00% | 2.74% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,277.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 794.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 483.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 255.40 | 159.63 | 95.78 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 483.00 | 483.00 | 483.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -255.40 | -159.63 | -95.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 227.60 | 323.38 | 387.23 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 349.75 | 349.75 | 349.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.65 | 0.92 | 1.11 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.27 | 2.27 | 2.27 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.65 | 0.92 | 1.11 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.92 | 3.19 | 3.38 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -1.82% | -0.82% | 0.18% |
| Fair Value | $26.27 | $31.95 | $37.95 |
| Upside / Downside | -66.29% | -59.00% | -51.31% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,277.00 | 1,266.55 | 1,256.18 | 1,245.90 | 1,235.70 | 1,225.58 | 1,262.35 |
| Payout Ratio | 62.18% | 67.74% | 73.31% | 78.87% | 84.44% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 794.00 | 857.98 | 920.86 | 982.65 | 1,043.37 | 1,103.02 | 1,167.67 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -1.82% | -0.82% | 0.18% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 778.50 | 786.43 | 794.36 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 758.15 | 773.67 | 789.35 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 734.08 | 756.74 | 779.86 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 707.24 | 736.49 | 766.65 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 678.42 | 713.68 | 750.39 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 11,777.27 | 12,389.38 | 13,026.68 |
| Equity Value (M) | 15,433.65 | 16,156.39 | 16,907.29 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 349.75 | 349.75 | 349.75 |
| Fair Value | $44.13 | $46.19 | $48.34 |
| Upside / Downside | -43.38% | -40.73% | -37.98% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |