Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Imperial Brands PLC (ITB.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.17 - $90.29$71.58
Multi-Stage$109.97 - $120.83$115.30
Blended Fair Value$93.44
Current Price$28.64
Upside226.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.77%1.23%1.481.501.511.492.002.111.911.751.581.44
YoY Growth---0.99%-0.61%1.15%-25.56%-4.93%10.02%9.69%10.25%10.09%9.57%
Dividend Yield--6.85%8.88%8.08%9.39%14.54%11.42%7.16%5.39%4.00%4.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,655.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,596.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,059.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)931.00581.88349.13
Cash Retained (M)2,059.002,059.002,059.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-931.00-581.88-349.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,128.001,477.131,709.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)875.48875.48875.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.291.691.95
LTM Dividend per Share2.972.972.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.291.691.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.254.654.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate-0.77%0.23%1.23%
Fair Value$56.17$71.58$90.29
Upside / Downside96.13%149.94%215.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,655.004,665.924,676.874,687.844,698.834,709.864,851.15
Payout Ratio55.77%62.61%69.46%76.31%83.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,596.002,921.543,248.593,577.163,907.254,238.874,487.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate-0.77%0.23%1.23%
Year 1 PV (M)2,709.522,736.822,764.13
Year 2 PV (M)2,794.192,850.792,907.96
Year 3 PV (M)2,853.522,940.663,029.55
Year 4 PV (M)2,890.653,008.943,130.82
Year 5 PV (M)2,908.413,057.933,213.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)82,121.2886,343.2590,737.11
Equity Value (M)96,277.57100,938.39105,783.12
Shares Outstanding (M)875.48875.48875.48
Fair Value$109.97$115.30$120.83
Upside / Downside283.98%302.57%321.89%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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