Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $44.49 - $106.23 | $65.78 |
| Multi-Stage | $31.03 - $33.92 | $32.45 |
| Blended Fair Value | $49.11 | |
| Current Price | $68.81 | |
| Upside | -28.62% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 24.30% | 14.87% | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 119.05% | 5.00% | 5.26% | 18.75% | 3.23% | 6.90% | 3.57% | 7.69% | 4.00% | 8.70% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.50% | 0.34% | 0.44% | 0.52% | 0.40% | 0.65% | 0.49% | 0.38% | 0.68% | 0.58% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 917.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 125.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 792.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 183.40 | 114.63 | 68.78 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 792.00 | 792.00 | 792.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -183.40 | -114.63 | -68.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 608.60 | 677.38 | 723.23 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 440.68 | 440.68 | 440.68 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.38 | 1.54 | 1.64 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.38 | 1.54 | 1.64 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.66 | 1.82 | 1.92 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.45% | 9.45% | 9.45% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $44.49 | $65.78 | $106.23 |
| Upside / Downside | -35.35% | -4.40% | 54.38% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 917.00 | 976.61 | 1,040.08 | 1,107.69 | 1,179.69 | 1,256.37 | 1,294.06 |
| Payout Ratio | 13.63% | 28.91% | 44.18% | 59.45% | 74.73% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 125.00 | 282.29 | 459.50 | 658.55 | 881.54 | 1,130.73 | 1,197.01 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.45% | 9.45% | 9.45% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 255.50 | 257.92 | 260.34 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 376.42 | 383.59 | 390.83 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 488.29 | 502.30 | 516.59 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 591.59 | 614.34 | 637.75 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 686.81 | 719.98 | 754.43 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 11,276.06 | 11,820.70 | 12,386.18 |
| Equity Value (M) | 13,674.67 | 14,298.84 | 14,946.11 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 440.68 | 440.68 | 440.68 |
| Fair Value | $31.03 | $32.45 | $33.92 |
| Upside / Downside | -54.90% | -52.85% | -50.71% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |