Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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HeidelbergCement AG (HEID.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$318.64 - $1,371.19$552.46
Multi-Stage$299.19 - $328.10$313.37
Blended Fair Value$432.91
Current Price$199.45
Upside117.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.56%17.12%3.062.712.562.440.672.332.111.781.370.79
YoY Growth--12.83%5.63%4.99%266.50%-71.42%10.53%18.74%29.96%73.39%25.24%
Dividend Yield--1.94%2.73%3.81%4.73%0.86%5.96%3.17%2.23%1.56%1.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,893.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)588.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,304.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)378.74236.71142.03
Cash Retained (M)1,304.901,304.901,304.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-378.74-236.71-142.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)926.161,068.191,162.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)178.76178.76178.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.185.986.51
LTM Dividend per Share3.293.293.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.185.986.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.479.279.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.56%4.56%5.56%
Fair Value$318.64$552.46$1,371.19
Upside / Downside59.76%176.99%587.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,893.701,980.082,070.402,164.852,263.602,366.852,437.85
Payout Ratio31.09%42.87%54.66%66.44%78.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)588.80848.941,131.591,438.261,770.552,130.162,255.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.56%4.56%5.56%
Year 1 PV (M)790.87798.51806.14
Year 2 PV (M)982.081,001.141,020.38
Year 3 PV (M)1,162.851,196.861,231.53
Year 4 PV (M)1,333.591,385.851,439.63
Year 5 PV (M)1,494.701,568.271,644.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,718.7550,067.5652,507.96
Equity Value (M)53,482.8356,018.1858,650.35
Shares Outstanding (M)178.76178.76178.76
Fair Value$299.19$313.37$328.10
Upside / Downside50.01%57.12%64.50%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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