Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Perdana Gapuraprima Tbk (GPRA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,350.53 - $5,487.68$5,142.76
Multi-Stage$878.84 - $962.80$920.05
Blended Fair Value$3,031.40
Current Price$130.00
Upside2,231.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.97%9.60%5.001.001.000.000.001.001.003.005.002.50
YoY Growth--400.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-66.64%-40.05%100.00%25.00%
Dividend Yield--6.17%1.12%1.05%0.00%0.00%2.00%1.01%2.91%3.36%1.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)118,008.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,383.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)96,625.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23,601.6614,751.048,850.62
Cash Retained (M)96,625.0296,625.0296,625.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-23,601.66-14,751.04-8,850.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)73,023.3681,873.9887,774.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,276.664,276.664,276.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share17.0719.1420.52
LTM Dividend per Share5.005.005.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share17.0719.1420.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.0724.1425.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,350.53$5,142.76$5,487.68
Upside / Downside2,477.33%3,855.97%4,121.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)118,008.29125,678.83133,847.96142,548.07151,813.70161,681.59166,532.04
Payout Ratio18.12%32.50%46.87%61.25%75.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,383.2840,840.7462,737.3387,307.93114,807.64145,513.43154,042.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38,097.1138,458.2238,819.33
Year 2 PV (M)54,591.2455,631.0556,680.67
Year 3 PV (M)70,867.8172,902.1774,975.09
Year 4 PV (M)86,928.9790,272.0193,710.57
Year 5 PV (M)102,776.85107,741.01112,895.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,405,254.203,569,729.253,740,499.15
Equity Value (M)3,758,516.183,934,733.724,117,579.97
Shares Outstanding (M)4,276.664,276.664,276.66
Fair Value$878.84$920.05$962.80
Upside / Downside576.03%607.73%640.62%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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