Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $19.13 - $27.01 | $23.03 |
| Multi-Stage | $29.90 - $32.85 | $31.35 |
| Blended Fair Value | $27.19 | |
| Current Price | $60.97 | |
| Upside | -55.41% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -22.59% | -14.60% | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.39 | 0.18 | 0.66 | 2.30 | 2.20 | 2.19 | 2.32 | 2.20 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 9.38% | 50.38% | 113.44% | -72.20% | -71.53% | 4.82% | 0.40% | -5.70% | 5.62% | -29.16% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.36% | 1.29% | 1.06% | 0.42% | 1.14% | 11.08% | 5.82% | 6.02% | 6.56% | 6.99% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 3,045.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 646.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,399.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 609.00 | 380.63 | 228.38 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,399.00 | 2,399.00 | 2,399.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -609.00 | -380.63 | -228.38 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,790.00 | 2,018.38 | 2,170.63 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,021.00 | 1,021.00 | 1,021.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.75 | 1.98 | 2.13 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.75 | 1.98 | 2.13 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.39 | 2.61 | 2.76 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.69% | 9.69% | 9.69% |
| Growth Rate | -2.47% | -1.47% | -0.47% |
| Fair Value | $19.13 | $23.03 | $27.01 |
| Upside / Downside | -68.62% | -62.23% | -55.69% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 3,045.00 | 3,000.09 | 2,955.84 | 2,912.24 | 2,869.29 | 2,826.97 | 2,911.78 |
| Payout Ratio | 21.22% | 34.97% | 48.73% | 62.49% | 76.24% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 646.00 | 1,049.19 | 1,440.35 | 1,819.75 | 2,187.63 | 2,544.27 | 2,693.40 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.69% | 9.69% | 9.69% |
| Growth Rate | -2.47% | -1.47% | -0.47% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 946.81 | 956.52 | 966.23 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,172.96 | 1,197.14 | 1,221.56 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,337.31 | 1,378.87 | 1,421.29 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,450.79 | 1,511.22 | 1,573.51 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,522.66 | 1,602.34 | 1,685.32 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 24,098.76 | 25,359.87 | 26,673.24 |
| Equity Value (M) | 30,529.29 | 32,005.96 | 33,541.15 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,021.00 | 1,021.00 | 1,021.00 |
| Fair Value | $29.90 | $31.35 | $32.85 |
| Upside / Downside | -50.96% | -48.59% | -46.12% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |