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Guild Holdings Company (GHLD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - MortgagesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.36 - $28.20$22.94
Multi-Stage$40.11 - $44.16$42.09
Blended Fair Value$32.52
Current Price$19.94
Upside63.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-1.13%0.00%0.490.490.001.940.600.520.640.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.73%0.00%-100.00%225.72%14.36%-18.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.22%3.31%0.00%18.91%4.19%3.47%4.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)126.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)79.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.2115.759.45
Cash Retained (M)79.5279.5279.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.21-15.75-9.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.3163.7670.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.4162.4162.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.871.021.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.871.021.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.621.771.87
WACC / Discount Rate6.62%6.62%6.62%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$18.36$22.94$28.20
Upside / Downside-7.94%15.06%41.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)126.03124.77123.52122.29121.07119.86123.45
Payout Ratio36.91%47.53%58.14%68.76%79.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.5259.3071.8284.0996.10107.87114.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.62%6.62%6.62%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)55.0555.6156.18
Year 2 PV (M)61.9163.1764.46
Year 3 PV (M)67.2969.3771.49
Year 4 PV (M)71.4074.3677.41
Year 5 PV (M)74.4078.2782.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,172.922,286.072,403.88
Equity Value (M)2,502.962,626.852,755.72
Shares Outstanding (M)62.4162.4162.41
Fair Value$40.11$42.09$44.16
Upside / Downside101.13%111.09%121.45%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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