Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $3.96 - $5.28 | $4.64 |
| Multi-Stage | $5.87 - $6.42 | $6.14 |
| Blended Fair Value | $5.39 | |
| Current Price | $27.82 | |
| Upside | -80.62% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -46.99% | -2.73% | 0.50 | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 0.60 | 11.99 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 0.36 | 4.86 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -3.10% | 2.87% | 3.63% | -18.77% | -95.01% | 3,347.47% | 2.84% | -4.95% | -92.67% | 633.66% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.89% | 2.07% | 2.71% | 2.21% | 2.20% | 60.48% | 1.58% | 1.64% | 1.26% | 23.65% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 570.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 313.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 257.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 114.00 | 71.25 | 42.75 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 257.00 | 257.00 | 257.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -114.00 | -71.25 | -42.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 143.00 | 185.75 | 214.25 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 623.75 | 623.75 | 623.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.85 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 12.84% | 12.84% | 12.84% |
| Growth Rate | -4.73% | -3.73% | -2.73% |
| Fair Value | $3.96 | $4.64 | $5.28 |
| Upside / Downside | -85.76% | -83.31% | -81.03% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 570.00 | 548.71 | 528.22 | 508.50 | 489.51 | 471.23 | 485.37 |
| Payout Ratio | 54.91% | 61.93% | 68.95% | 75.96% | 82.98% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 313.00 | 339.82 | 364.20 | 386.28 | 406.21 | 424.11 | 448.96 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 12.84% | 12.84% | 12.84% |
| Growth Rate | -4.73% | -3.73% | -2.73% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 298.01 | 301.14 | 304.27 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 280.09 | 286.00 | 291.98 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 260.53 | 268.82 | 277.28 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 240.26 | 250.51 | 261.08 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 219.98 | 231.78 | 244.07 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,365.51 | 2,492.30 | 2,624.47 |
| Equity Value (M) | 3,664.39 | 3,830.54 | 4,003.14 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 623.75 | 623.75 | 623.75 |
| Fair Value | $5.87 | $6.14 | $6.42 |
| Upside / Downside | -78.88% | -77.93% | -76.93% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |