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Definitive Analysis

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Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,419.48 - $5,132.45$4,499.72
Multi-Stage$641.87 - $702.73$671.74
Blended Fair Value$2,585.73
Current Price$139.80
Upside1,749.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS622.00%41.14%3.182.090.310.150.000.000.460.300.140.14
YoY Growth--52.01%571.32%109.58%0.00%-100.00%-99.96%54.34%120.25%-0.03%33.67%
Dividend Yield--2.71%2.99%1.12%1.22%0.00%0.00%5.65%2.72%1.53%1.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108,389.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18,963.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)89,426.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21,677.9413,548.718,129.23
Cash Retained (M)89,426.6789,426.6789,426.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-21,677.94-13,548.71-8,129.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)67,748.7375,877.9681,297.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,199.954,199.954,199.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.1318.0719.36
LTM Dividend per Share4.524.524.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.1318.0719.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend20.6522.5823.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,419.48$4,499.72$5,132.45
Upside / Downside915.37%3,118.68%3,571.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108,389.71115,435.04122,938.32130,929.31139,439.71148,503.29152,958.39
Payout Ratio17.50%32.00%46.50%61.00%75.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18,963.0336,934.8157,162.8079,864.38105,275.65133,652.96141,486.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)34,183.3934,507.4034,831.42
Year 2 PV (M)48,963.4449,896.0650,837.47
Year 3 PV (M)63,312.7065,130.1866,982.11
Year 4 PV (M)77,240.4680,210.9183,266.22
Year 5 PV (M)90,755.8795,139.4199,690.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,381,363.042,496,383.762,615,806.60
Equity Value (M)2,695,818.892,821,267.722,951,414.54
Shares Outstanding (M)4,199.954,199.954,199.95
Fair Value$641.87$671.74$702.73
Upside / Downside359.13%380.50%402.67%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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