Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $13.37 - $18.96 | $16.13 |
| Multi-Stage | $23.26 - $25.52 | $24.37 |
| Blended Fair Value | $20.25 | |
| Current Price | $24.83 | |
| Upside | -18.45% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.80% | -3.65% | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.09 | 1.04 | 0.99 | 3.53 | 1.30 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.11% | 0.04% | -1.15% | -0.72% | -2.28% | 5.50% | 4.89% | -72.05% | 172.18% | -14.70% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.29% | 4.87% | 5.08% | 3.80% | 3.90% | 6.61% | 3.91% | 3.55% | 11.81% | 5.35% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 258.83 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 131.94 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 126.89 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 51.77 | 32.35 | 19.41 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 126.89 | 126.89 | 126.89 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -51.77 | -32.35 | -19.41 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 75.13 | 94.54 | 107.48 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 126.53 | 126.53 | 126.53 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.59 | 0.75 | 0.85 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.59 | 0.75 | 0.85 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.64 | 1.79 | 1.89 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.80% | -1.80% | -0.80% |
| Fair Value | $13.37 | $16.13 | $18.96 |
| Upside / Downside | -46.16% | -35.05% | -23.64% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 258.83 | 254.17 | 249.59 | 245.10 | 240.68 | 236.35 | 243.44 |
| Payout Ratio | 50.97% | 58.78% | 66.58% | 74.39% | 82.19% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 131.94 | 149.40 | 166.19 | 182.33 | 197.83 | 212.71 | 225.18 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.80% | -1.80% | -0.80% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 135.55 | 136.94 | 138.34 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 136.80 | 139.63 | 142.49 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 136.17 | 140.41 | 144.75 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 134.04 | 139.64 | 145.42 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 130.76 | 137.63 | 144.78 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,270.05 | 2,389.25 | 2,513.41 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,943.37 | 3,083.51 | 3,229.18 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 126.53 | 126.53 | 126.53 |
| Fair Value | $23.26 | $24.37 | $25.52 |
| Upside / Downside | -6.32% | -1.86% | 2.78% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |