Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $7.96 - $12.61 | $10.08 |
| Multi-Stage | $19.93 - $21.99 | $20.94 |
| Blended Fair Value | $15.51 | |
| Current Price | $9.95 | |
| Upside | 55.88% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2021 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 39.73 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2.43 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 37.30 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 7.95 | 4.97 | 2.98 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 37.30 | 37.30 | 37.30 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -7.95 | -4.97 | -2.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 29.36 | 32.34 | 34.32 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 50.00 | 50.00 | 50.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.59 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.59 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.64 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.83% | 5.83% | 5.83% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $7.96 | $10.08 | $12.61 |
| Upside / Downside | -20.03% | 1.30% | 26.72% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 39.73 | 39.33 | 38.94 | 38.55 | 38.16 | 37.78 | 38.91 |
| Payout Ratio | 6.11% | 22.89% | 39.66% | 56.44% | 73.22% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2.43 | 9.00 | 15.44 | 21.76 | 27.94 | 34.00 | 35.99 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.83% | 5.83% | 5.83% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 8.42 | 8.51 | 8.59 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 13.51 | 13.79 | 14.07 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 17.81 | 18.36 | 18.92 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 21.39 | 22.28 | 23.19 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 24.35 | 25.61 | 26.93 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 911.11 | 958.56 | 1,007.96 |
| Equity Value (M) | 996.59 | 1,047.10 | 1,099.66 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 50.00 | 50.00 | 50.00 |
| Fair Value | $19.93 | $20.94 | $21.99 |
| Upside / Downside | 100.32% | 110.47% | 121.04% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |