Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Erawan Hotel Growth Property Fund (ERWPF.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.51 - $7.60$6.56
Multi-Stage$12.48 - $13.78$13.12
Blended Fair Value$9.84
Current Price$8.55
Upside15.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-25.20%-5.50%0.090.000.000.370.000.380.600.600.550.61
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-36.28%-0.15%8.39%-8.55%284.52%
Dividend Yield--1.05%0.00%0.00%8.31%0.00%7.49%9.83%7.85%5.74%6.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.0522.5313.52
Cash Retained (M)140.45140.45140.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.05-22.53-13.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.40117.92126.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)176.10176.10176.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.900.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate-6.26%-5.26%-4.26%
Fair Value$5.51$6.56$7.60
Upside / Downside-35.55%-23.25%-11.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180.25170.77161.79153.28145.22137.58141.71
Payout Ratio22.08%35.66%49.25%62.83%76.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.8060.9079.6896.31110.97123.83131.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate-6.26%-5.26%-4.26%
Year 1 PV (M)55.9756.5657.16
Year 2 PV (M)67.2868.7370.19
Year 3 PV (M)74.7477.1679.62
Year 4 PV (M)79.1482.5786.11
Year 5 PV (M)81.1585.5790.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,838.901,939.102,043.62
Equity Value (M)2,197.172,309.682,426.88
Shares Outstanding (M)176.10176.10176.10
Fair Value$12.48$13.12$13.78
Upside / Downside45.93%53.40%61.18%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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