Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $260.45 - $632.75 | $387.31 |
| Multi-Stage | $193.68 - $211.48 | $202.42 |
| Blended Fair Value | $294.86 | |
| Current Price | $318.16 | |
| Upside | -7.32% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 7.21% | 7.20% | 4.40 | 4.11 | 3.83 | 3.58 | 5.06 | 3.11 | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.52 | 2.35 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 7.14% | 7.21% | 7.25% | -29.35% | 62.78% | 7.14% | 7.35% | 7.19% | 7.19% | 7.03% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.05% | 1.02% | 1.66% | 2.03% | 2.29% | 2.10% | 1.62% | 2.30% | 2.06% | 2.53% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 647.98 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 250.08 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 397.90 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 129.60 | 81.00 | 48.60 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 397.90 | 397.90 | 397.90 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -129.60 | -81.00 | -48.60 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 268.31 | 316.90 | 349.30 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 53.93 | 53.93 | 53.93 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 4.98 | 5.88 | 6.48 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 4.64 | 4.64 | 4.64 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 4.98 | 5.88 | 6.48 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 9.61 | 10.51 | 11.11 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.21% | 6.21% | 7.21% |
| Fair Value | $260.45 | $387.31 | $632.75 |
| Upside / Downside | -18.14% | 21.73% | 98.88% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 647.98 | 688.25 | 731.03 | 776.46 | 824.71 | 875.97 | 902.25 |
| Payout Ratio | 38.59% | 48.88% | 59.16% | 69.44% | 79.72% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 250.08 | 336.38 | 432.45 | 539.15 | 657.45 | 788.37 | 834.58 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.21% | 6.21% | 7.21% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 305.43 | 308.33 | 311.24 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 356.52 | 363.33 | 370.20 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 403.59 | 415.20 | 427.04 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 446.85 | 464.08 | 481.81 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 486.53 | 510.09 | 534.56 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 8,446.06 | 8,855.14 | 9,279.91 |
| Equity Value (M) | 10,444.98 | 10,916.18 | 11,404.76 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 53.93 | 53.93 | 53.93 |
| Fair Value | $193.68 | $202.42 | $211.48 |
| Upside / Downside | -39.12% | -36.38% | -33.53% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |