Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Eurocommercial Properties N.V. (ECMPA.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.72 - $60.93$45.08
Multi-Stage$53.25 - $58.42$55.79
Blended Fair Value$50.43
Current Price$26.75
Upside88.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.21%3.86%1.321.381.450.461.161.731.401.341.281.12
YoY Growth---4.22%-5.19%216.62%-60.45%-32.72%23.30%4.75%4.63%13.70%24.29%
Dividend Yield--5.27%6.46%6.94%1.87%6.97%7.62%5.04%4.17%3.58%3.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)129.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)71.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.8416.159.69
Cash Retained (M)57.7657.7657.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.84-16.15-9.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.9241.6148.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)53.8153.8153.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.770.89
LTM Dividend per Share1.331.331.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.770.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.922.102.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Fair Value$33.72$45.08$60.93
Upside / Downside26.06%68.51%127.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)129.22131.87134.57137.33140.14143.02147.31
Payout Ratio55.30%62.24%69.18%76.12%83.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)71.4682.0893.10104.54116.40128.71136.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Year 1 PV (M)76.0976.8577.60
Year 2 PV (M)80.0281.6183.22
Year 3 PV (M)83.3085.8088.34
Year 4 PV (M)85.9989.4593.01
Year 5 PV (M)88.1692.6197.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,451.592,575.322,703.99
Equity Value (M)2,865.153,001.633,143.40
Shares Outstanding (M)53.8153.8153.81
Fair Value$53.25$55.79$58.42
Upside / Downside99.07%108.55%118.40%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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