Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional S.A. (CSED3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.84 - $137.77$129.11
Multi-Stage$19.58 - $21.44$20.49
Blended Fair Value$74.80
Current Price$4.92
Upside1,420.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.71%23.59%0.160.230.140.200.150.140.110.070.070.04
YoY Growth---29.48%70.17%-30.42%33.06%8.00%25.00%59.93%-0.75%55.56%124.56%
Dividend Yield--4.33%5.35%7.30%4.76%1.45%1.24%0.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)252.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)175.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.5131.5718.94
Cash Retained (M)175.53175.53175.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.51-31.57-18.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)125.02143.96156.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)364.54364.54364.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$52.84$129.11$137.77
Upside / Downside973.94%2,524.17%2,700.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)252.53268.95286.43305.04324.87345.99356.37
Payout Ratio30.49%42.39%54.29%66.20%78.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.00114.01155.51201.93253.72311.39329.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)105.94106.95107.95
Year 2 PV (M)134.28136.84139.42
Year 3 PV (M)162.02166.67171.41
Year 4 PV (M)189.16196.44203.92
Year 5 PV (M)215.72226.14236.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,332.086,637.926,955.47
Equity Value (M)7,139.217,470.967,815.13
Shares Outstanding (M)364.54364.54364.54
Fair Value$19.58$20.49$21.44
Upside / Downside298.05%316.55%335.74%

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