Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PC Connection, Inc. (CNXN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.38 - $35.62$29.80
Multi-Stage$41.49 - $45.64$43.53
Blended Fair Value$36.67
Current Price$61.99
Upside-40.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.49%0.00%0.410.320.351.330.330.330.350.350.410.41
YoY Growth--25.17%-6.01%-74.14%310.57%-0.30%-7.34%0.90%-14.64%0.00%0.61%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.49%0.77%2.55%0.70%0.79%0.96%1.39%1.37%1.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)83.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)69.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.7510.476.28
Cash Retained (M)69.5969.5969.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.75-10.47-6.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.8459.1263.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.9325.9325.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.042.282.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.042.282.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.582.832.99
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$24.38$29.80$35.62
Upside / Downside-60.68%-51.92%-42.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)83.7382.8982.0681.2480.4379.6382.02
Payout Ratio16.89%31.52%46.14%60.76%75.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.1526.1237.8649.3660.6371.6675.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)23.8624.1024.35
Year 2 PV (M)31.5832.2332.88
Year 3 PV (M)37.6038.7739.95
Year 4 PV (M)42.1843.9345.73
Year 5 PV (M)45.5447.9150.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)895.01941.61990.14
Equity Value (M)1,075.781,128.561,183.44
Shares Outstanding (M)25.9325.9325.93
Fair Value$41.49$43.53$45.64
Upside / Downside-33.07%-29.78%-26.37%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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